Robert Kiyosaki, the "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author, is at it again, predicting a global financial meltdown. This time, it's pinned on Japan ending its carry trade, compounded by AI-driven job losses. The claim? A bursting 30-year bubble impacting real estate, stocks, and employment. But is this data-driven insight, or just another iteration of his well-worn doomsday narrative?
Kiyosaki's Carry Trade Theory: Show Me the Data
The Carry Trade Conundrum
Kiyosaki's core argument centers on the unwinding of Japan's carry trade. For decades, investors borrowed cheaply in Japan and invested in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Now, the theory goes, Japan's policy shift will trigger a mass exodus from these investments, tanking markets worldwide. It's a plausible scenario. But let's dig into the numbers. How significant *was* this carry trade, really? Details on the exact size of the Japanese carry trade and its global impact remain surprisingly scarce in Kiyosaki's pronouncements (and, frankly, in most mainstream financial reporting).
He points to a Thanksgiving period sell-off as potential evidence of this unwinding. However, attributing short-term market fluctuations solely to the carry trade is a stretch. Market corrections happen. To isolate the carry trade's impact, we'd need to see sustained, significant outflows from specific asset classes *directly correlated* with Japanese monetary policy changes. That data simply isn't presented.
AI Job Apocalypse or Just a Skills Mismatch?
AI's Job Apocalypse: A Real Threat?
Kiyosaki also throws AI-driven job losses into the mix, predicting further destabilization of real estate values. This is where the narrative gets murkier. While AI's impact on employment is a valid concern, framing it as an immediate, catastrophic event requires more than just anecdotal evidence of layoffs. We need to see concrete data on the *types* of jobs being lost (are they predominantly in sectors susceptible to AI disruption?) and the *rate* of displacement compared to historical trends.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Layoffs have indeed been happening (I've seen hundreds of these filings), but many companies are simultaneously struggling to fill specialized roles, particularly in fields related to—you guessed it—AI. Is it a net job loss, or a skills mismatch amplified by technological change? Kiyosaki doesn't delve into that nuance.
Kiyosaki's Crash Course: Same Old Pitch, New Crisis?
The "Safe Haven" Sales Pitch
As always, Kiyosaki offers his solutions: gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. He even throws out specific price targets: silver hitting $70 soon and potentially $200 in 2026, and gold reaching $27,000 per ounce. These are bold predictions, to say the least.
But let's be clear: recommending precious metals and crypto as safe havens is a recurring theme in Kiyosaki's messaging, regardless of the specific crisis du jour. It's a consistent pitch, and one that conveniently aligns with his own investments (he mentions owning gold and silver mines). While diversification is generally sound advice, portraying these assets as guaranteed lifeboats in a financial tsunami requires a healthy dose of skepticism. Bitcoin, for instance, is currently struggling, sitting about 28% below its all-time high. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have reached $3.5 billion (their largest since February), suggesting institutional investors are pulling back. Money isn't just failing to come in, it's actually leaving the crypto market.
Bitcoin faces 3 headwinds as the cryptocurrency sits 28% below record high
Is This Time Really Different?
Kiyosaki has been predicting market crashes for years. In 2013, he published "Rich Dad's Prophecy," forecasting the "biggest crash in history." Now, he claims that crash has finally arrived. The problem is, predicting enough crashes, eventually one will happen.
Robert Kiyosaki Predicts Global Financial Meltdown Following Japan's Carry Trade Closure, Says '30 YEAR BUBBLE BURSTING'
The real question isn't whether a correction is coming (they always do), but whether Kiyosaki's specific triggers and timelines hold water. The data, or lack thereof, suggests a more nuanced picture than his apocalyptic pronouncements.
Just Another Sales Pitch Wrapped in Doomsday Packaging
While the concerns Kiyosaki raises—the impact of Japan's monetary policy and AI-driven job displacement—are legitimate areas of concern, framing them as a guaranteed, imminent financial meltdown feels more like a marketing tactic than a data-driven forecast.
